Bitcoin Price Projected to Bottom at $35,000 in December by Model That Timed the Last Two Market Tops

In recognition of the definitive peak observed in the current bull market cycle, I have developed an updated halving-cycle model that synthesizes insights from four historical Bitcoin cycles.

The model forecasts a cycle low near $35,000 in December 2026, representing a 72.5% drawdown from a projected cycle high of $126,219.

Analysis of the Halving-Cycle Framework

The prior iteration of this model successfully identified both the peak timeframes for the years 2021 and 2025. The newly formulated framework, denoted as the Akiba Cycle Model v2, integrates a robust 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulation with advanced methodologies such as walk-forward validation and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV).

This model delineates the cycle into three interconnected components: the drawdown from a bull market high to the subsequent cycle low, the number of days elapsed from a halving event to that low, and the recovery multiple from the low into the next halving phase.

Empirical analyses indicate that the drawdown and timing components exhibit smaller historical errors in comparison to the recovery segment. Notably, the recovery leg has been responsible for the most significant deviations observed during out-of-sample testing.

The foundational premise of this model is predicated on an empirical pattern observed in preceding cycles, wherein peak-to-trough drawdowns have progressively diminished over successive eras while maintaining substantial depth.

To elucidate further:
– The historical drawdowns from bull highs to cycle lows are characterized as follows:
– Cycle 1: 94.1%
– Cycle 2: 88.2%
– Cycle 3: 83.7%
– Cycle 4: 77.6%

The fitted projection for the fifth cycle anticipates a drawdown of approximately 72.5%, with a simulated variability band ranging from 71.9% to 73.1%.

The distribution of that drawdown is notably constrained due to the monotonic decay consistently observed across all four cycles, yielding an LOOCV root mean square error of merely 0.63 percentage points.

Temporal Dynamics Indicating Late 2026

Additionally, I have delineated the temporal framework concerning how long it typically takes for the market to reach its cycle low following a halving event.

The duration from halving to cycle low has exhibited an incremental growth:
– Cycle 1: 778 days
– Cycle 2: 784 days
– Cycle 3: 890 days
– Cycle 4: 923 days

The estimation for the fifth cycle posits approximately 980 days post-halving (scheduled for April 2024), projecting towards December of that year, with a P10–P90 interval extending from November 2026 through January 2027.

The LOOCV timing error is broader than that observed in drawdown estimates, approximating at ±37 days due to variance in elongation patterns evident in previous cycles.

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