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Home Market Analysis

Who Regulates Prediction Markets? Coinbase Forces a US Legal Test

December 22, 2025
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Who Regulates Prediction Markets? Coinbase Forces a US Legal Test
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Introduction to the Regulatory Dispute

Coinbase, a prominent player in the cryptocurrency exchange sector, has escalated its legal confrontations with U.S. regulatory authorities as it ventures into the domain of prediction markets. The firm has instituted lawsuits against regulators in the states of Connecticut, Illinois, and Michigan. Central to this litigation is a pivotal inquiry that could significantly influence the operational framework governing financial markets in the United States: should prediction markets be classified and regulated at the federal level as financial derivatives, or should they be handled at the state level as gambling products? Coinbase asserts that the pertinent federal legislation has already delineated this jurisdictional boundary.

A Jurisdictional Battle Takes Shape

The foundation of Coinbase’s legal argument is anchored in the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), which designates the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) with exclusive jurisdiction over derivatives, encompassing event contracts. Coinbase contends that prediction markets, when listed on platforms overseen by the CFTC, are unequivocally situated within this regulatory framework. From Coinbase’s perspective, attempts by state regulators to impose local gambling statutes amount to an encroachment on federal authority.

The Role of Federal Authority

Paul Grewal, Chief Legal Officer at Coinbase, has articulated that these lawsuits arise from what the company perceives as a fundamental conflict between federal jurisdiction and state enforcement mechanisms. The implications of this conflict are profound; allowing for state-level intervention threatens to engender a fragmented regulatory landscape that could compromise national consistency. A scenario wherein stricter jurisdictions could obstruct federally sanctioned products poses significant risks to market integrity and operational uniformity.

Gambling Labels Under Scrutiny

A critical focal point in these lawsuits pertains to the classification of prediction markets. State regulators have sought to categorize them alongside traditional forms of gambling, such as sports betting and casino-style games. Coinbase vehemently refutes this analogy, asserting that the operational mechanics of prediction markets are fundamentally distinct from those of gambling enterprises.

Operational Mechanics of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets function as platforms where buyers and sellers engage in transactions predicated on their divergent expectations regarding future events. Pricing within these markets is determined by supply and demand dynamics rather than being dictated by a central entity managing odds. Consequently, Coinbase maintains that this structure aligns prediction markets more closely with derivatives trading than with wagering activities, thereby placing them under the purview of federal commodities law rather than state gaming regulations.

Federal Oversight and Compliance Claims

Coinbase further substantiates its position by highlighting the rigorous regulatory obligations associated with CFTC-supervised markets. These obligations encompass various mechanisms aimed at ensuring market integrity, including:

– Monitoring for manipulation
– Establishing position limits
– Implementing ongoing compliance requirements

According to Coinbase, these safeguards address many consumer protection concerns raised by state regulators. Ryan VanGrack, Vice President of Legal at Coinbase, has articulated that state-level interventions risk creating duplicative oversight that may conflict with existing federal regulations. The company argues that subsuming prediction markets under local gambling frameworks disregards the operational realities of federally regulated derivatives markets and jeopardizes uniform regulatory oversight.

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