## Current Market Overview of Bitcoin
As of December 17, 2025, Bitcoin’s market valuation hovers around $89,000, following a notable decline in its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which fell below the critical threshold of 30 in mid-November—a level typically associated with capitulation among traders. This decline has raised significant concern and speculation regarding the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory.
A recent analysis by Julien Bittel of Global Macro Investor, utilizing data sourced from LSEG Datastream, presents an intriguing visual representation of Bitcoin’s recent performance in juxtaposition with past instances where the RSI fell below 30. This analysis posits that historical trends suggest a potential ascent to approximately $180,000 within a temporal framework of 90 days post-oversold conditions.
### Calculation of Potential Returns
– **Current Price**: ~$89,000
– **Projected Price**: ~$180,000
– **Implied Gain**: ~105% over three months
– **Daily Compounding Rate**: Approximately 0.80%
It is crucial to note that this chart does not serve as a predictive distribution; rather, it represents an event-study average that may obscure the variability in trajectories observed during the five historical instances analyzed.
## Examination of Market Cycles and Price Dynamics
### The Four-Year Cycle Hypothesis
The prevailing price action since October has perpetuated discourse surrounding the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s market behavior. The cryptocurrency reached a peak of $126,223 in October before experiencing a significant sell-off that culminated in a low of approximately $80,697 on November 21—a drawdown exceeding 36% from its October high.
This decline aligns with CryptoSlate’s cycle-timing framework, which delineates a drawdown range of 35% to 55%. This framework suggests potential trough levels between $82,000 and $57,000 if the post-halving cadence remains a governing model.
Furthermore, additional analysis by CryptoSlate has identified the $106,400 mark as a critical pivot point that oscillated between support and resistance throughout this period. The sustained trading below this pivotal level into mid-December raises pertinent questions regarding the probability of a rebound toward $180,000. Such an ascent would necessitate a definitive reclaiming and maintenance of levels above historical regime pivots, rather than merely reflecting a momentum-driven bounce within a corrective range.
### Investor Sentiment and Fund Flow Analysis
Investor sentiment has also been reflected through fund flows. On November 19, investors withdrew a record $523 million from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as Bitcoin’s value dipped below $90,000. This shift in investor behavior indicates a prevailing risk-off sentiment that has continued to exert pressure on net ETF inflows.
Moreover, derivatives positioning introduces another layer of complexity to market dynamics. The options market exhibits dealer gamma concentrations within an extensive band ranging from $86,000 to $110,000. This concentration can facilitate two-way trading as hedging strategies are adjusted; however, it may also delay significant trend movements until spot prices can breach this established range.
## Evaluating the Viability of the Four-Year Cycle
Bittel’s assertion regarding the obsolescence of the “four-year cycle” is predicated not merely on historical price patterns but rather on macroeconomic mechanisms affecting liquidity and policy dynamics. He correlates cycle timing with public debt refinancing trends and U.S. borrowing maturity profiles—factors that fundamentally influence interest expenses and subsequent policy responses.
According to data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), federal government interest payments are projected to surpass $1 trillion annually. This burgeoning obligation underscores the importance of liquidity conditions within the context of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations over the forthcoming 90-day horizon.
The Federal Reserve’s recent actions—including rate cuts to a range between 3.50% and 3.75% and monthly purchases of approximately $40 billion in short-dated Treasury bills—aim to alleviate year-end funding pressures while potentially influencing risk asset pricing dynamics.
### Correlation Analysis with M2 Money Supply
A longitudinal examination reveals that shifts in global M2 liquidity—when adjusted by approximately 90 days—exhibit correlations with Bitcoin pricing behavior; however, these relationships are subject to decoupling over extended periods. My analysis illustrates that during upward price movements, M2 liquidity aligns closely with Bitcoin’s price trajectory; conversely, during downturns, M2 continues to appreciate despite diverging from Bitcoin’s declining value.
| Checkpoint | Level or Metric | Utilization |
|———————-|—————————–|——————————————|
| Starting Level | ~$87,800 (Dec. 17) | Base for calculating subsequent returns |
| Event Trigger | 14-day RSI below 30 (mid-Nov.) | Defines temporal origin for RSI events |
| Chart Target | ~$180,000 (~90 days) | Implied target representing ~105% increase |
| Regime Pivot | $106,400 | Critical threshold for trend confirmation |
| Dealer Band | $86,000 – $110,000 | Range facilitating two-way trading dynamics |
| Flow Stress Marker | ~-$523M IBIT withdrawal (Nov. 19) | Indicator for potential risk-off scenarios |
| Cycle Drawdown Band | $82,000 – $57,000 | Projected trough zone based on cycle analysis |
## Conclusion
In summary, Bitcoin has generated essential inputs for ongoing discourse surrounding its market trajectory: notably the mid-November RSI breach and subsequent price low near $80,697. The forthcoming weeks will be pivotal as market participants monitor the significance of reclaiming the pivotal level at $106,400 alongside daily spot ETF flows—both crucial indicators for discerning whether any rebounds represent mere temporary corrections or signal broader bullish momentum extending towards the projected path of $180,000.
As analyst Caleb Franzen eloquently noted:
> “Oversold readings in bull markets are bullish; oversold readings in bear markets aren’t bullish.”
Additionally, perspectives advocating for improved liquidity conditions further corroborate Bittel’s assessment:
> “Short-term oversold signals must be interpreted within the liquidity and business cycle context… If conditions continue to improve and capital flows back into markets, these oversold dips tend to resolve higher over time.”
The future trajectory of Bitcoin remains contingent upon these multifaceted dynamics as market participants navigate an increasingly complex landscape fraught with both opportunities and risks.
