As of the latest report, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $101,328, having retraced from a brief surge that saw the price reach $103,885 the previous day, thereby negating a 2.3% recovery. This decline substantiates findings from on-chain analytics indicating a waning demand momentum, with long-term holders liquidating positions amid market weakness and structural support levels undergoing rigorous testing reminiscent of mid-cycle corrections.
The price has experienced two consecutive dips beneath the $100,000 threshold on November 4 and 5, further corroborating the insights derived from on-chain data analysis. A report published by Glassnode on November 5 delineates a pathway toward re-establishing a bullish trend that necessitates two pivotal reversals:
- First, there is a pressing need for US spot Bitcoin ETF flows to demonstrate net positive movement following a fortnight characterized by daily outflows ranging between $150 million and $700 million.
- Second, the market price must reclaim and sustain above the Short-Term Holders’ cost basis situated at $112,500.
Failure to achieve both of these conditions places Bitcoin at risk of descending towards the Active Investors’ Realized price near $88,500, a critical juncture historically associated with more pronounced corrective phases.
Structural Breakdown
The inability of Bitcoin to maintain levels above $112,500—representative of the average acquisition price for coins held for less than 155 days—is increasingly concerning. This threshold is significant because when prices trade below their cost basis, short-term holders find themselves in positions of unrealized loss, which tends to exacerbate selling pressure.
Currently trading at an approximate 11% discount to this level places Bitcoin historically deep within a range that could invite further downside if substantive support fails to materialize. At the $100,000 mark, an estimated 71% of the circulating supply remains profitable, positioning the market near the lower bounds of the typical equilibrium range (70% to 90%) observed during mid-cycle slowdowns. This zone often yields ephemeral relief rallies toward the Short-Term Holders’ cost basis; however, any sustained recovery would necessitate extended consolidation coupled with renewed demand.
Should selling pressure push an increasing share of supply into loss territory, the market risks transitioning into a more protracted bearish phase. The Relative Unrealized Loss metric—expressing total unrealized losses as a percentage of market capitalization—currently registers at 3.1%, comfortably beneath the 5% threshold generally indicative of panic-induced selloffs. In contrast, during the bear market of 2022-2023, this metric exceeded 10%. The present reading suggests an orderly revaluation rather than capitulation; however, it is crucial to recognize that this cushion is precariously thin.
Long-Term Holder Distribution Dynamics
A notable aspect has been the behavior exhibited by long-term holders. Since July 2025, this demographic has divested approximately 300,000 BTC, resulting in a contraction of supply from 14.7 million to 14.4 million BTC. Unlike previous distribution patterns where seasoned investors capitalized on strength during upward price movements, current trends indicate a propensity to sell into weakness as prices descend—a behavioral shift that signals investor fatigue and diminished conviction.
When accounting for new maturations—coins that have aged beyond 155 days—the spending activity becomes more pronounced. Long-term holders have expended around 2.4 million BTC since July; however, much of this outflow has been offset by new maturations. Excluding maturations reveals that such spending constitutes approximately 12% of the circulating supply—a significant sell-side pressure operating beneath the surface.
ETF Flows and Derivative Market Sentiment
The cooling institutional demand is starkly apparent in recent ETF activity. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded consistent net outflows over the past fortnight, contrasting sharply with robust inflows witnessed throughout September and early October that had previously supported price resilience. This recent trend implies an inclination towards profit-taking and a diminished appetite for novel exposure.
Correspondingly, spot market dynamics reflect this narrative. The Cumulative Volume Delta Bias across major exchanges has transitioned into negative territory; specifically:
- Binance registered negative CVDs amounting to -822 BTC
- Aggregate spot CVDs reflected similar negative sentiment at -917 BTC
Furthermore, Coinbase maintains a relatively neutral position with a positive CVD of only +170 BTC, indicating minimal buy-side absorption amidst prevailing conditions. This deterioration mirrors ETF slowdowns and suggests that any upward rallies are met with swift profit-taking actions.
In perpetual futures markets, the Directional Premium has plummeted from $338 million per month in April to approximately $118 million currently—indicative of reduced interest paid by long traders. This downward movement underscores a broader unwind in speculative positioning as traders opt for neutrality rather than aggressive long exposures.
The options market further reinforces this defensive sentiment; demand for put options remains heightened with traders willing to pay premium prices as insurance against potential downside rather than positioning themselves for potential reversals. Short-term implied volatility surged to 54% during recent selloffs before retracting approximately ten volatility points once some semblance of support was established.
The premiums associated with put options at the $100,000 strike price have surged amidst growing trepidation that the bull cycle may be nearing its terminus. Even with Bitcoin’s stabilization efforts ongoing, these premiums remain elevated as flow data indicates that taker activity is predominantly characterized by negative delta positioning—whereby puts are purchased while calls are sold. This environment favors caution over risk-taking without any discernible catalysts suggesting imminent upside movements.
Conditions for Recovery
The breach below the Short-Term Holders’ cost basis and stabilization around the $100,000 mark marks a critical transition within market dynamics. The current correction mirrors historical mid-cycle slowdowns; however, persistent distribution by long-term holders coupled with ongoing ETF outflows highlights an erosion of conviction within market participants.
The market currently exists in a fragile equilibrium: oversold yet devoid of panic; cautious yet structurally intact. The forthcoming directional impetus will hinge upon whether renewed demand can effectively absorb ongoing distributions and successfully reclaim $112,500 as robust support or if sellers can maintain their dominance.
Until such time as ETF flows turn net positive and Bitcoin’s price can reclaim and sustain above $112,500, bullish sentiment will remain underpowered—a condition that necessitates both aforementioned reversals to determine whether this current correction culminates or deepens.
