Bitcoin Brief Slip Below $100K Heightens Crypto Winter Fears

Market Dynamics: Bitcoin’s Recent Price Volatility

Bitcoin’s recent fluctuation, particularly its descent below the $100,000 threshold, has raised significant concerns within the trading community regarding the potential onset of a prolonged bearish phase in the cryptocurrency market. Initially heralded as a landmark achievement indicative of Bitcoin’s maturation as a viable institutional asset, this decline has instead elicited trepidation reminiscent of previous downturns, colloquially termed “crypto winters.”

On November 4, Bitcoin experienced a brief dip to $99,075, marking its lowest valuation since May. Although it subsequently rebounded to approximately $102,437, this performance still reflects a 3% decrease from the day’s earlier apex of $104,777, as per data sourced from CryptoSlate.

This recent price action has led to Bitcoin underperforming against US Treasuries for the first time in 2025, effectively negating one of the year’s most prevalent macroeconomic investment strategies.

Despite these fluctuations, analysts posit that the current market dynamics signify a structural recalibration rather than an impending systemic collapse.

Factors Contributing to Bitcoin’s Decline

One salient factor contributing to Bitcoin’s recent depreciation is the activity of long-term holders (LTHs), who have been increasingly inclined to realize profits at unprecedented rates. Analyst James Van Straten has highlighted that this demographic has liquidated over 362,000 BTC—approximately 3,100 BTC daily—since July. Notably, this selling pace has accelerated in recent weeks to nearly 9,000 BTC per day.

In a similar vein, analyst Johan Bergman suggests that the cumulative realized profits for LTHs have surged from $600 billion in June to an estimated $754 billion currently. He extrapolated that if these assets were sold at an average price of $110,000 per coin, it would imply profits averaging around $72,000 per coin sold.

“Assuming they sold at an average price of $110,000, that’s about $72,000 in profit per coin. So, $154B / $72K ≈ 2.1 million coins sold.”

Further analysis by James Check at CheckOnChain indicates that Bitcoin is currently subject to monthly sell-side pressure estimated at $34 billion due to older coins re-entering exchanges. This influx has largely counterbalanced waning demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries—many of which are redirecting their capital towards share buybacks instead of new allocations into cryptocurrencies.

Moreover, there is an observable decline in speculative trading activity within the market. Data from Glassnode indicates that funding rates for perpetual futures have plummeted by 62% since August—from approximately $338 million to $127 million monthly—signaling reduced leverage among traders.

Glassnode elucidates:

“This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite as traders grow reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure.”

This declining enthusiasm coincides with tightening liquidity on a global scale. The protracted US government shutdown—the second-longest in history—has effectively immobilized approximately $150 billion within the Treasury General Account. This removal of liquidity typically circulating through risk assets exacerbates existing challenges faced by Bitcoin.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has observed that since the debt ceiling increase in July, dollar liquidity has contracted by approximately 8%, while Bitcoin’s valuation has similarly declined by around 5%, underscoring a notable correlation between the two assets.

The Psychological Threshold: $95K

The current wave of selling activity has precipitated an environment where approximately 57% of all capital invested in Bitcoin is now operating at a loss. Utilizing a cost-basis model which values each coin based on its last on-chain transaction provides insights into prevailing market sentiment influenced by recency bias.

“We price every coin when it last transacted onchain; this helps us interpret sentiment based on our recency bias. We don’t think about our coins from prior cycles as much as those purchased three days ago.”

Check highlights that around 63% of invested capital possesses a cost basis exceeding $95,000—rendering this figure as a pivotal psychological and structural support level.

He further notes that unrealized losses amount to nearly $20 billion or approximately 3% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. Historically speaking ,bear markets have typically commenced when unrealized losses surpass the threshold of ten percent.

If Bitcoin’s value were to fall below the critical level of $95K , Check anticipates a deterioration in market sentiment. Previous corrections observed during early and mid-year periods stabilized once losses reached between seven and eight percent of market capitalization; therefore any significant drop beyond these figures could indicate the initiation of another bear cycle.

“Obviously nobody wants to make that call AFTER the price has already fallen; hence why $95K is critical line in the sand for sustaining market confidence.”

The Prospects for a Bear Market

The cryptocurrency sector is currently characterized by divergent perspectives among industry analysts regarding whether Bitcoin’s recent retracement signifies the commencement of a new downtrend or merely a mid-cycle recalibration.

Check asserts:

“There has been tremendous rotation of coins in 2025 and much of it occurred above $95K; while we do not wish to see prices fall below this threshold we anticipate robust resistance from bulls defending it. While preparing for potential bearish conditions we advise against succumbing to overly pessimistic outlooks.”

Conversely ,in his analysis titled “Hallelujah, ” Hayes interprets this decline through the lens of transitory dollar scarcity rather than structural inadequacies within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

According to Hayes ,the substantial issuance of Treasury securities has siphoned liquidity away from money markets; he remains optimistic that this trend will reverse once governmental operations resume and balance-sheet expansion recommences.

“If current money market conditions persist and treasury debt continues to escalate exponentially; SRF balances must rise accordingly as lender-of-last-resort. As SRF balances increase so too does fiat currency availability globally; thereby reigniting bullish momentum for Bitcoin.”

In parallel with Hayes’ perspective ,Matt Hougan ,chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management ,echoes long-term optimism while contextualizing it within Bitcoin’s evolving maturation process. During an interview with CNBC ,Hougan characterized the current downturn as “a tale of two markets,” where retail investors capitulate amid leveraged washouts while institutional players subtly increase their exposure.

He emphasizes that despite prevailing risks associated with BTC ,its risk-adjusted outlook remains unparalleled; however ,the era marked by astronomical yearly returns may be behind us .He elaborates:

“We are unlikely to witness returns exceeding one hundred times within any single year moving forward; nonetheless substantial upside remains attainable following completion of distribution phases… [We still project] Bitcoin will reach $1.3 million by year2035; personally I believe this estimate is conservative.”

Additionally ,he contends that BTC’s previous allocation levels hovering around one percent are no longer viable due its reduced volatility making it increasingly attractive for larger holdings.

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“From an allocator’s standpoint; my response to these developments wouldn’t be liquidation but rather acquisition as we anticipate bitcoin will outperform all major assets over next decade; lower volatility renders it more secure for increased allocations.”