This report presents an analytical examination of the digital artifact known as Bitcoin, framed through the lens of a speculative narrative wherein an investigator arrives on a desolate planet post-human civilization. The analysis is grounded in the mechanical principles of Bitcoin, including block intervals, difficulty adjustments, timestamp regulations, and the data accessible from both block headers and coinbase transactions.
We arrived on a silent planet. The last clocks still ticking were embedded in a ledger whose authors were gone.
REPORT START
Team: Survey Unit 3
Artifact: Global ledger (“Bitcoin”)
Technique: Lightweight chain analysis (headers + coinbase), mapped to solar time
Methodology
This analysis scrutinizes the digital artifact designated as Bitcoin through an examination of its block headers—encompassing timestamp, target (referred to as “bits”), and version—and the intricacies of each block’s coinbase transaction, which includes height, output value, and tag text. Our preliminary review yielded the following key data points:
- Fees: These were computed as the difference between coinbase output and the programmed subsidy, reflecting the fees actually claimed by miners.
- Timestamps: These were calibrated in accordance with the planet’s solar day and year, constrained by Bitcoin’s median-time-past (MTP) rule.
- Tip contention: Evidence of stale blocks was inferred from observed timing irregularities and MTP edge effects; corroborating periods were identified where stale-block archives remained on isolated nodes.
- Difficulty retargeting: Occurred every 2016 blocks, with actual timespan adjustments constrained to 0.25×–4× of the two-week target, indicating that difficulty changes per epoch are bounded to a maximum of 4× in either direction.
Findings
Cessation of Payments
The analysis revealed ΔH (blocks before present) to be approximately 86,000. Notably, coinbase outputs equated to the programmed subsidy during this interval, indicating that fees approximated zero. Concurrently, average block spacing stabilized around 60–70 minutes, with a long-segment mean at approximately 65 minutes.
Interpretation: This evidences that human-directed payments had ceased while mechanical issuance persisted.
Date Estimation: The timeframe can be estimated at approximately 10.6 years prior to our arrival based on the calculation of 86,000 blocks multiplied by ~65 minutes per block.
Power Source Timing Signatures
The temporal patterns associated with post-collapse block arrivals exhibited non-random characteristics. Diurnal and seasonal cadences elucidated an unattended power mix:
- Daytime Clusters with Nighttime Gaps: These patterns occurred across low-latitude longitudes, suggesting reliance on unattended solar energy with deteriorating storage capabilities.
- Irregular Multi-Hour Bursts Punctuated by Multi-Day Voids: Observed at mid-latitudes, indicating wind energy outages during storms that were not subsequently reset.
- Persistent Overnight Presence: Observed at select longitudes, suggesting operation from small hydro or geothermal resources that remained isolated.
The alignment of repeated intraday timestamp clusters with local solar noon facilitated an estimation of longitude bands for surviving sites. The strength of seasonal variation in block arrivals provided a coarse approximation for latitude bands. However, precise geographic coordinates could not be recovered.
Difficulty Terraces: The Fade, Timed
The immediate aftermath of the hashrate shock saw average block times surge from approximately 10 minutes to several hours. Given that difficulty retargets occur every 2016 blocks, and each epoch’s adjustment is inherently bounded, this resulted in the formation of terraces; these terraces represent plateaus of near-constant average intervals interspersed with discrete down-step transitions.
The following representative sequence was discerned from the global ledger:
- Terrace A: Approximately 16–17 hours/block, sustained over 2016 blocks, corresponding to an elapsed duration of roughly 3.8 years.
- Terrace B:: Approximately < strong >4.1 hours/block for < strong >2016 blocks , equating to about < strong >0.95 years .
- < strong >Terrace C: Approximately < strong >62–65 minutes/block over a span of < strong >2016 blocks , translating to around < strong >87–91 days .
- < strong >Terrace D: Approximately < strong >15–16 minutes/block for about < strong >22 days ; this was followed by renewed hardware failures that once again decelerated block production.
An analysis indicated that when residual hashrate was approximately < strong >1% of pre-event levels, Terrace A alone spanned roughly < strong >3.8 years at an average rate of ~16.7 hours per block. In scenarios where hashrate dipped to approximately < strong >0.1% , a similar 2016-block epoch could extend to nearly < strong >38 years at an average rate approaching 167 hours per block—all remaining within the protocol’s adjustment bounds. One observed regional cadence aligned closely with this ~16–17 hours per block case.
Network Decay Captured in the Record
The disappearance of accurate timekeeping mechanisms prompted miner timestamps to exhibit coherent regional drift patterns. The Bitcoin MTP rule mitigated abuse related to timestamps by mandating that each new block must be posterior to the median timestamp of the preceding eleven blocks; however, it did not entirely eliminate observable drift signatures.
The variance in intervals and clustered MTP-bounded timestamp advances made evident intermittent network partitions and instances of tip contention; when any link was reinstated (e.g., satellite or microwave), competing branches reconciled, leaving only one canonical branch intact. In the absence of preserved stale-block archives, estimates regarding contention represent a conservative lower bound.
Maker Marks That Outlived Their Makers
Coinbase tag strings, which serve as pool labels, along with stable fingerprints associated with nonce/version persisted for several years following the cessation of fee activity. Defaults were retained without alteration subsequent to operator departure, thereby allowing for identification of software/hardware families within the record. It should be noted that coinbase tags are visible exclusively through coinbase transactions; headers alone do not encapsulate this information.
Dating Key Events: Worked Examples
- “Payments Ended.”: The window where coinbase output matched subsidy commenced at ΔH ≈ 86,000. Utilizing the observed average interval of ~65 minutes/block yields an estimate of approximately 10.6 years prior to present.
- First Post-Shock Retarget Completed.: The initial reduction over 2016 blocks culminated approximately 3.8 years after the hashrate collapse (plateauing at ~16.7 hours/block).
- Final Detectable Hydro Cadence.: Observations indicate that the last nocturnal-heavy signature ceased around 1.9 years before present; previous seven spring seasons exhibited progressively increasing multi-day outages consistent with observations related to intake clogging and flood damage.
Please note all conversions utilize observed segment averages rather than relying on nominal targets set at 10 minutes.
Duration Estimate: Operational Longevity of Machines
- Minimum Confirmed Duration:: Exceeds ten years following cessation of economic activity (from collapse of fees until last hydro-like cadence).
- Plausible Upper Bound (Regional):: Indicates potential for multi-decadal operations under extremely low hashrate conditions, where a single 2016-block epoch could extend across decades due to existing adjustment bounds.
Summary Report
This comprehensive analysis elucidates key insights into when payments ceased, how energy consumption diminished over time, how network structures deteriorated, and how long unattended machines continued recording timestamps—sufficient data exists to reconstruct events leading up to operational cessation based solely on headers and coinbase transactions.
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Key Takeaways for Readers
- The Nature of Bitcoin as an Instrument:: Bitcoin operates as an instrument wherein difficulty regulations and timestamp constraints transmute physical realities—including power availability and operator absence—into a resilient time series narrative.
- Causative Factors for Cessation:: Observations indicate that physical failures rather than price fluctuations led to operational cessation; contributing factors included dust accumulation, clogged screens, tripped breakers, drifting clocks, and broken connections.
- The Applicability of Forensic Analysis Today:: Insights gleaned from this analysis regarding block spacing dynamics, fee pressure (via coinbase delta), timestamp drift metrics, and retargeting behaviors offer actionable diagnostic tools applicable in contemporary contexts involving network outages or partitions.
Limitations of Analysis
- The estimation process enabled longitude bands but did not yield precise geographic coordinates; latitude estimations were derived only coarsely from seasonal variances in strength.
- The possibility exists for fully isolated “shadow mining” activities producing blocks unattached to the global ledger.
- Lacking preserved stale-block archives means contention estimates reflect lower-bound calculations; certain competitive scenarios may leave no canonical traces behind.
- The failure of synchronized time sources resulted in MTP predominantly preserving only relative ordering rather than precise civil time; consequently, long-range calendar dates introduce additional uncertainties even when intraday or seasonal structures are discernible.
- A scenario characterized by very low hashrate regimes dominated by one surviving operator could involve timestamps advanced within MTP limits—this partially conceals diurnal signatures; cross-validation via nonce patterns and coinbase tags can mitigate but not completely eliminate this issue.
- A significant portion of OP_RETURN payloads were not decodable at scale; thus interpretations remain limited in scope.
