The recent performance of Bitcoin (BTC) has elicited considerable concern among market analysts and participants alike, as it has breached the psychologically significant threshold of $100,000, plunging to levels not witnessed since May. This precipitous decline marks a significant moment in the cryptocurrency market, as it reflects broader structural vulnerabilities.
As reported by CryptoSlate, Bitcoin experienced a dramatic drop to $98,550, catalyzing an unprecedented wave of liquidations amounting to $190 million within a single hour and a staggering $655 million over a 24-hour period. Concurrently, spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $278 million on November 12 alone, with cumulative outflows nearing $961 million for the month thus far.
On-chain Data Analysis: A Shift in Market Structure Below $100k
Analysis of on-chain data reveals substantial shifts in market dynamics following this recent liquidation event. Bitcoin’s price trajectory exhibited a peak at $103,988 before declining sharply to $95,900, ultimately closing near $96,940—merely a marginal percentage above the critical on-chain HODLers Wall situated at $95,000. This downturn transitioned the market from a relatively stable position into a precarious situation that closely approaches the aforementioned support level.
The structural integrity of the on-chain wall remains intact; however, the behavioral pattern of prices has undergone significant alteration. Current cost-basis distribution indicates that approximately 65% of all invested capital in Bitcoin is positioned above the pivotal threshold of $95,000. Notably, all short-term holders possess coins valued at or exceeding this juncture, with an additional 30% of long-term holder supply similarly situated within this price range.
This situation starkly contrasts the speculative atmosphere characteristic of previous peaks in 2017 and early 2021. The current environment mirrors the denser “second-wind” structure observed in late 2021, wherein experienced holders and new investors converged within the upper price echelons—a scenario that necessitated an extended resolution period.
The prolonged stagnation of spot prices can be attributed to last year’s US election rally, which lured a diverse array of buyers into the $95k–$115k zone, effectively ensnaring them within a year-long phase of sideways trading. With the short-term holder cost basis having already succumbed at approximately $112,000, each unsuccessful attempt to reclaim this level further entrenched recent buyers under water while long-term holders maintained a layered cost-basis structure just beneath recent highs.
Futures Unwind and ETF Outflows: Thinning Support Zones Identified
The latest tumultuous developments have laid bare underlying market structures. The unwinding of futures positions revealed a conspicuous absence of fresh demand within the $106k-$118k resistance bracket identified by Glassnode and the psychologically critical $100k mark. Furthermore, ETF demand has demonstrated insufficient strength to absorb the forced selling pressure that ensued.
A crucial distinction in this cycle pertains to the nature of selling parties involved. In prior peaks—specifically those observed in 2017 and 2021—liquidations near market tops were predominantly executed by short-term holders. Subsequent to these peaks, older coins that had appreciated in value transitioned outwards. This period was often marked by unrealized losses surging to approximately 15% of total market capitalization within six weeks—filling historical air pockets.
In contrast, as of November 2025, unrealized losses are approximately half their value compared to January 2022 levels, even amidst Bitcoin trading below $100k and nearing key support levels. According to Glassnode data, short-term holders have been operating under water against their cost basis of $111,900 since October. Their realized profit-loss ratio fell below 0.21 near the $98,000 mark—indicative that over 80% of transacted value at this level was realized at a loss.
This phenomenon exemplifies classic capitulation behavior among top-tier buyers rather than a widespread exodus among long-term holders (LTHs). Checkonchain corroborates this observation: nearly half of recently liquidated coins originated from high-entry positions held by recent buyers who are exiting as the market hovers ominously near critical support levels.
The significance of maintaining above $95k cannot be overstated; it was previously regarded as a theoretical bull cycle “fail point,” and its proximity now looms large over current price action. Recent data from Coinbase reveals that Bitcoin’s low at $95,900 situates it firmly within the long-term holder zone—where most coins remain dormant. Should this cohort maintain their composure amidst current volatility, this wall could effectively absorb the selling pressure emanating from short-term holders and derivatives trading.
Conversely, should Bitcoin decisively breach the $95k threshold, subsequent pathways become markedly clearer. The initial support shelf materializes around $85,000—the “tariff tantrum” low—which marked a local bottom during prior policy-induced jitters and briefly refilled portions of last year’s air pocket. Further down lies the True Market Mean at approximately $82,000—a level that coincides with residual gaps created during the US election pump—positioning it as a natural attraction for deeper sell-offs. Only beneath these key thresholds does discussion re-emerge regarding substantial older demand bands situated between $50,000 and $75,000.
Comparative Risk Profiles: Current Cycle Versus Previous Year
A salient distinction between current market conditions and those experienced in early 2022 lies in the nature and speed of downward movements following breaches of critical support levels. In early 2022, the rapid loss of the HODLers Wall at $45k precipitated an almost immediate descent—characterized by minimal support around critical junctures—with markets cascading downwards towards True Market Mean levels around $36k and intersecting multi-year air pockets established at earlier cycle stages.
In contrast, any potential decline from present pricing structures would yield shorter fall distances owing to more immediate underlying demand stemming from price ranges established throughout early-to-mid-2024. A contraction from approximately $95k to low-$80ks would undoubtedly inflict pain upon market participants; however, it is unlikely to engender the protracted bear market observed post-2021 peaks.
The short-term outlook remains tenuous at best as ETF flows exhibit negative trends—with redemptions now superseding consistent inflows that previously bolstered Bitcoin throughout most of this year. Additionally, metrics such as perpetual funding rates and open interest have witnessed declines since October’s leverage flush event. Options markets currently reflect an approximate 11% implied volatility premium for put options relative to calls—signifying that traders are increasingly hedging against downside risk.
Ultimately, forthcoming developments will hinge less upon transient traders and more upon those stakeholders who possess substantial holdings situated both above and just beneath the pivotal mark of $95k. Should they demonstrate resilience in their positions during this volatile phase, there exists potential for this wall to continue serving as an effective floor—as it would afford time for demand reconstruction within the marketplace. Conversely, should this group falter under pressure, pathways toward lower thresholds such as $85k and then toward an eventual return towards the True Market Mean at approximately $82k seem increasingly probable based on prevailing on-chain analysis.
