Bitcoin Forecast: Potential Upside in Late 2025 or Early 2026
Bitcoin is currently facing resistance around $85,000, marking a 30% decline from its all-time high of $109,287 in January. This has led to increased market uncertainty regarding its current cycle phase.
Historical Patterns and Analysis
According to a report by Anthony Power published by Compass Mining, historical patterns tied to Bitcoin halving events suggest a potential upside in late 2025 or early 2026, despite the recent correction.
Market Indicators and Analysis
Bitcoin’s past cycles have shown sharp rises followed by significant downturns, with notable crashes of 80% post-2017 peak and 75% post-2021 high. Currently, on-chain indicators offer mixed signals, with the MVRV Z-Score suggesting deep value or consolidation zone and 63% of Bitcoin remaining unmoved for over a year.
The Fear & Greed Index reflects market uncertainty, recently dropping to “Extreme Fear” at 15 after reaching “Extreme Greed” levels near 90 in December 2024.
Macro Factors and Influence
Macro factors such as institutional investment shifts and US policy developments are playing a significant role. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 initially boosted prices, but early 2025 saw record ETF outflows, indicating weakened institutional support. However, President Trump’s executive order establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve shows ongoing federal adoption.
Long-Term Outlook and Forecasts
Despite short-term volatility, forecasts by Anthony Power maintain optimism for Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. Standard Chartered and Bitwise project prices nearing $200,000 by year-end, driven by renewed institutional inflows and regulatory clarity.
Impact on Miners
For Bitcoin miners, the recent price correction, combined with increased mining difficulty and reduced block rewards, has significantly lowered profitability. This highlights the importance of strategic risk management through derivative tools like Luxor’s Hashprice contracts.
