Bitcoin Price Projection: A Closer Look at Potential Peaks
The latest edition of the “Bitfinex Alpha” report suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach a peak of $290,000 in early 2026 if it follows the price action from the 2017 bull run. This projection takes into account historical price patterns, institutional adoption, and key technical indicators.
Current Market Trends
- Bitcoin saw a strong rebound in 2023 with a 155.5% gain following its bear market low in November 2022.
- In 2024, BTC traded between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of the year, posting a 143% year-to-date gain.
- The current bull cycle, which began in mid-to-late 2023, has been fueled by anticipation of Bitcoin’s 2024 halving event and institutional buying pressure.
Cycle Patterns
In previous cycles, Bitcoin experienced corrections of 33.2% in 2017 and 27.1% in 2020. The current cycle has seen more contained corrections due to increased institutional interest, contributing to market stability.
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator, a key tool for predicting price peaks, suggests that Bitcoin could reach a significant high when the 111-day moving average crosses above a multiple of the 350-day moving average. This crossover is projected to occur between June 29, 2025, and Jan. 28, 2026.
Price Projections
Historically, Bitcoin has peaked significantly above its moving averages during bull runs. If Bitcoin follows the 2021 trajectory, it could potentially reach $339,000, trading 40% above its moving averages. However, more conservative estimates place the peak between $160,000 and $200,000 by mid-2025.
In a less likely scenario where the 2017 cycle repeats, Bitcoin could peak at around $290,000 by early 2026. The report suggests that the path to these price levels will be influenced by market maturity, ETF adoption, and broader macroeconomic conditions.
