Bitcoin’s Price Prediction in Light of the Upcoming US Elections
Standard Chartered has forecasted that Bitcoin may hit the $73,000 mark on Election Day, November 5, as detailed in their report titled “Bitcoin—Post-US Election Playbook,” led by Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research. The report emphasizes significant price fluctuations expected both before and after the US presidential election.
Six-Figure Projections for Bitcoin
The report reinforces previous projections suggesting that Bitcoin’s price could soar to $125,000 by the year’s end, particularly if the Republicans secure the presidency and Congress.
Potential Impacts of Election Outcomes on Bitcoin Prices
Scenario: Trump Victory
The analysis indicates that if Donald Trump wins, Bitcoin’s price could increase by as much as 10% shortly after the election results. Current betting markets, such as Polymarket, suggest a 59% to 64% chance of a Trump win, along with a 75% likelihood of a Republican sweep in Congress.
In the immediate aftermath, Bitcoin could see a 4% increase overnight, potentially reaching around $76,000. The high demand for call options with an $80,000 strike price by late December indicates strong market expectations for upward momentum.
“With significant open interest in December BTC call options at the $80,000 level, we anticipate continued price increases, possibly hitting $80,000 shortly after the election results.” – Geoffrey Kendrick
If Republicans achieve control of Congress, predictions suggest Bitcoin could surge to $125,000 due to anticipated pro-crypto regulatory reforms.
Scenario: Harris Victory
Conversely, a victory for Kamala Harris may trigger an initial dip in Bitcoin’s value. The report argues that a Harris administration would likely be slower in implementing favorable crypto regulations, leading to short-term market volatility.
Yet, Kendrick believes that any downturn is expected to be brief, with Bitcoin stabilizing to around $75,000 by the end of 2024. He noted:
“While regulatory changes may take longer under a Harris presidency, the market will recognize the potential for future reforms.”
Though Harris’s approach may be less aggressive, the overall sentiment for Bitcoin remains cautiously optimistic. Industry experts concur that Bitcoin’s growth trajectory is likely to continue regardless of electoral outcomes.
Conclusion: Monitoring the Political Landscape
As the US election date draws near, Bitcoin’s future seems inextricably linked to the political landscape. Heightened market volatility is anticipated, prompting traders to closely watch the election results as a critical factor influencing Bitcoin’s price movements.
