Bitcoin (BTC) is beginning to show positive price momentum for the first time since June, working towards a decisive breakthrough in the $69,000 price range and striving to enter a “euphoric bull market.”
According to the latest “Week Onchain Newsletter” by Glassnode, the recent price increase has enabled Bitcoin to surpass critical technical and on-chain price levels, pushing numerous investor positions into unrealized profits and potentially uplifting overall market sentiment.
The AVIV Ratio, a significant on-chain metric that evaluates the unrealized gains and losses of active investors, remains positive, indicating sustained profitability even amidst market fluctuations. This ratio suggests additional growth potential as Bitcoin seeks to evolve from an “enthusiastic bull market” to a “euphoric bull market,” characterized by a consistent breach of its former all-time high of $69,000.
Recovering Key Price Indicators
The latest surge in Bitcoin’s price has led it to surpass both the 200-day and 111-day moving averages (DMA), historically critical benchmarks for investors.
Additionally, the report notes that the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) has served as a vital support level during macroeconomic disturbances, highlighting the market’s resilience as Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory.
Fibonacci retracement levels suggest that Bitcoin has been trading within an unusual range over the past several months, pointing to a phase of consolidation rather than the expected sharp peaks or declines.
Glassnode reported a significant uptick in net capital inflows, which increased by $21.8 billion in the last 30 days, bringing Bitcoin’s realized market cap to an unprecedented $646 billion.
Institutional Engagement and Strategy Shifts
In the realm of derivatives, Bitcoin markets are witnessing considerable expansion, with the open interest in both perpetual and fixed-term futures contracts reaching a new peak of $32.9 billion.
The growing involvement of institutional investors is underscored by CME futures contracts, which recorded open interest of $11.3 billion. These financial instruments provide regulated exposure for institutional players, enabling participation in yield-generating strategies such as cash-and-carry trades.
Despite this institutional engagement, the volume of futures trading remains relatively low, suggesting that the market has not yet experienced a major increase in overall trading activity.
Nevertheless, with current yields from cash-and-carry strategies hovering around 9.6%—nearly double that of short-term US Treasuries—interest from institutional investors in Bitcoin is anticipated to escalate, especially as the Federal Reserve hints at potential rate cuts in the near future.
Furthermore, the ongoing influx into spot Bitcoin ETFs and CME futures markets indicates a growing trend among institutional traders to adopt long-spot and short-futures strategies for yield acquisition, which could enhance Bitcoin’s liquidity and fortify its status as a pivotal asset within both retail and institutional investment portfolios.
