Significant Surge in Prediction Markets Ahead of 2024 Elections
The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has recently surpassed a remarkable milestone, achieving over $2 billion in total trading volume for the upcoming 2024 US presidential elections.
Current Odds and Statistics
- Donald Trump (Republican Candidate): Holds a strong 61.3% chance of winning with $605 million in volume and $267 million wagered.
- Kamala Harris (Democratic Candidate): Trails with a 38% chance, attracting $405 million in volume and $159 million in bets.
Market Influence and Whale Activity
Recent insights from CryptoSlate reveal that large-scale traders, often referred to as “whales,” have notably influenced market dynamics in favor of Donald Trump over the last 24 hours. On October 16, two major supporters executed over 1,600 trades totaling more than $4 million in support of Trump’s candidacy.
Additionally, a new participant known as “Theo4” has made headlines by placing over $12 million in high-frequency bets on Trump within just three days.
Record-Breaking Trading Activity
This notable activity on Polymarket coincides with unprecedented growth for the platform itself. In October, Polymarket has already reported over $900 million in trading volume, indicating a potential approach to the $1 billion threshold—a remarkable 100% increase from approximately $503 million in September.
Moreover, there are now nearly 100,000 active monthly users engaging with the platform, as per data from Dune Analytics.
The largest market on Polymarket, focusing on the “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” has played a substantial role in this growth, accumulating a staggering $785 million in volume ahead of the November 5 election.
This uptick in trading activity reflects a growing interest in decentralized prediction markets, which are increasingly popular due to significant global events, such as elections and economic policy shifts.
Activity Across Other Platforms: Kalshi
Polymarket is not alone; other platforms are also witnessing heightened activity in light of the impending elections.
Kalshi, another prediction market, reports a similar trend with approximately $20 million in trading volume since the launch of its presidential election market on October 7.
- Like Polymarket, Kalshi gives Trump a favorable 57% chance of victory, while Harris holds a 43% chance.
In addition, Kalshi recently secured a legal victory over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing it to continue offering contracts on political events after a federal appeals court reaffirmed a favorable ruling on October 2.