In recent updates from the political landscape, former President Donald Trump has gained a slim advantage over current Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets for the upcoming 2024 presidential election, as indicated by Polymarket, showing Trump at 53.7% and Harris at 45.6%.
Trump Takes the Lead
This narrow margin represents the first time Trump has led since Harris’s nomination by the Democratic Party, particularly following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race.
As of October 7th, more than $1.4 billion has been wagered on the election results on Polymarket alone.
Betting Markets vs. Polls
Various platforms demonstrate that Trump is favored over Harris, with a projected electoral college count of 281 for Trump compared to 257 for Harris.
These betting trends have ignited discussions about their predictive accuracy, particularly after Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, endorsed Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania. Musk stated that prediction markets provide a more “accurate” reflection of voter sentiment.
“Trump is now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More reliable than polls, as real money is involved.”
Recent legal decisions in the U.S. have recognized betting markets as permissible for major political events, including presidential elections, which has significantly benefited platforms that offer these markets. However, analysts advise caution as Election Day approaches, noting that while betting markets reflect current sentiment, they can be subject to rapid changes.
Cryptocurrency Forecasts
A recent analysis by Bernstein suggests that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could potentially rise to between $80,000 and $90,000, driven by his pro-crypto stance and commitment to enhancing the U.S.’s position in the digital asset sector.
In contrast, if Harris were to take office, Bitcoin valuations could range between $30,000 and $40,000, which corresponds with her more cautious approach regarding the cryptocurrency market.
Furthermore, Standard Chartered has forecasted a Bitcoin rally regardless of the election outcome, predicting a peak of $125,000 if Trump wins compared to $75,000 should Harris be elected. This sentiment is widely supported within the cryptocurrency community, with expectations for a more favorable regulatory atmosphere under Trump’s governance.
Anticipated policies from Trump, including substantial tax reductions, are likely to contribute to an increased national deficit, which may result in heightened inflation and rising Treasury yields. Analysts believe these conditions could set the stage for Bitcoin’s ascension, portraying it as a resilient hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.