Bitcoin (BTC) may be about to enter a new price move, according to Matt Hogan, chief investment officer at crypto index fund manager Bitwise.
Hogan said he is keeping an eye on several indicators related to Bitcoin options and the newly approved Spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF).
He is particularly interested in comparing net inflows into newly approved funds to Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
“What I see:
- ETF net flows (new ETFs vs. GBTC)
- Annualized basis based on Binance
- BTC option skew
Friday’s big options and futures deadline could be the culmination of this round of price action as people unwind pre-ETF bets. ”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $39,698. The top crypto asset by market capitalization has fallen nearly 7% over the past week.
Hogan continues: To tell BTC’s recent losses are not the result of an ETF-driven decline.
“ETFs are buyers of Bitcoin (including GBTC).
This is an expectation-driven sell-off for ETFs. The market pre-empted ETF approval by jumping into both spot Bitcoin and Bitcoin derivatives. We expect net inflows to the ETF to be higher than in the past and are now unwinding that bet.
[In my opinion,] Just as the market overestimates the short-term impact of ETFs, it also underestimates its long-term impact. ”
hogan To clarify GBTC is a net seller, but new ETFs as a whole are net buyers.
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