Prominent crypto trader Arthur Hayes views the drop in Bitcoin (BTC) prices following the launch of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) just two weeks ago as a “warning sign.”
He highlighted the correlation between Bitcoin’s recent highs and the two-year US Treasury note, which hit a local low of 4.14% this month and is currently showing a modest rise. There is.
Short-term Bitcoin price prediction by Arthur Hayes
In a recent blog post, Hayes refutes the common argument that the recent Bitcoin price drop was due to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) outflow.
“That argument is false because after subtracting outflows from GBTC and inflows to the newly listed Spot Bitcoin ETF, the result is $820 million in net inflows as of January 22nd. Because it becomes.”
Meanwhile, BeInCrypto recently reported that there has been over $3.3 billion in outflows from Grayscale since the approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETF.
However, he emphasized that the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) may not be renewed as an explanation for this investor sentiment.
The U.S. government established the BFTP in an effort to ensure that banks maintain sufficient liquidity to meet the needs of businesses and households. This is especially important when large amounts of withdrawals are made in a short period of time.
read more: Bitcoin price prediction 2024/2025/2030
A decision on the renewal of the BTFP is scheduled for March 12th. Hayes expects the price of Bitcoin to continue to fall until the decision is made public.
“A 30% correction from the ETF approval high of $48,000 would be $33,600. Therefore, I believe Bitcoin will form support between $30,000 and $35,000. That’s why I bought the $35,000 strike put on March 29th.”
However, he expects the trend to reverse after the expected decision and Bitcoin prices to rise following the announcement.
“Bitcoin rises as SPX and NDX collapse due to March’s mini-financial crisis, as talk of rate cuts and more money printing on behalf of the Fed becomes the front that will ultimately translate into action of pressing the Brrrr button.” will do.”
At the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin is $41,921.
Arthur Hayes’ long-term outlook
When discussing Bitcoin, Mr. Hayes confidently offers specific and optimistic predictions.
In July 2023, BeInCrypto reported that Hayes predicted Bitcoin would rise to $70,000 by the end of 2024 due to lower interest rates, a crypto halving event, and the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Mr Hayes said:
“That’s when the real fun begins. That’s when the real bull market begins.”
But Hayes’ optimism extends further into 2026. He expects Bitcoin prices to reach a range of $750,000 to $1 million in two years.
read more: What is a Bitcoin ETF?
He’s not the only one making six-figure stock predictions these days.
Analytics firm Messari predicts Bitcoin will reach $600,000 by the end of the year, while Van Eck predicts $275,000 and ETC Group predicts $100,000.