Executive Summary
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Monero (XMR), particularly in the context of its recent performance, market dynamics, and on-chain activity. Notably, Monero has encountered substantial selling pressure following its peak valuation, while simultaneously exhibiting resilience in core network activity.
Market Overview
Recent Price Dynamics
Following a remarkable surge that culminated in an all-time high of approximately $798 in January, Monero (XMR) has been subjected to significant volatility. As of the present moment, XMR is trading at approximately $331—a stark decrease of over 44% from its recent zenith within a single month.
Current Market Sentiment
- Monero is experiencing short-term selling pressure beneath pivotal moving averages.
- Despite facing delistings across various exchanges, on-chain activity persists robustly.
- Key support levels are identified at $300, with immediate resistance positioned near $381.
Analysis of Selling Pressure
The latest price trends indicate that Monero is struggling to maintain its position above critical moving averages, specifically the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA). These technical indicators are vital as they influence market sentiment and trader behavior.
The compounded selling pressure can be attributed to a notable decline in futures open interest, which decreased by approximately 11% within a single trading day. Concurrently, shifts in the long-to-short ratio have indicated a growing preference for short positions among traders, signaling a prevailing bearish sentiment. Should Monero fail to maintain its position above the psychologically significant $315 threshold, this may catalyze further downward movement.
On-chain Activity and Adoption Trends
Contrary to the observed price volatility, Monero’s core network activity remains significantly robust. Transaction volumes have consistently surpassed pre-2022 levels, indicating sustained demand for privacy-centric transactions despite the challenges posed by exchange delistings.
The inclination toward Monero as a preferred payment method is particularly pronounced within darknet markets, with nearly half of newly established privacy-oriented platforms operating exclusively with Monero. This underscores an increasing adoption rate in niche sectors that prioritize anonymity and transactional privacy. While Bitcoin remains the dominant currency for ransomware payments due to its superior liquidity, Monero continues to solidify its position among users who prioritize privacy.
Despite exchange delistings and enforcement pressure, XMR activity on Monero remains above pre-2022 levels.
Key findings from our latest research:
🔺 48% of new darknet markets in 2025 are XMR-only
🔺 Most ransomware payments still occur in BTC — liquidity matters
🔺 14–15% of…pic.twitter.com/BYPJMrLaJN— TRM Labs (@trmlabs) February 16, 2026
Furthermore, an examination at the network level reveals anomalous behaviors exhibited by a subset of Monero nodes that deviate from standard protocol operations. While these anomalies do not undermine the integrity of Monero’s privacy features, they suggest nuanced variations in real-world network functionalities. Collectively, these dynamics illustrate that Monero maintains an active and engaged user base despite regulatory pressures and exchange limitations.
Future Price Forecast
Monero currently finds itself navigating a dichotomy between short-term price weaknesses and long-term network resilience. The immediate support level is identified around $300; maintaining this level is critical in averting further declines. In the event that this support fails, subsequent significant support zones are anticipated between $290 and $231.
Conversely, for any upward momentum to materialize, Monero must reclaim resistance levels exceeding $381 to alleviate current selling pressures and potentially reinstate a bullish trajectory. Short-term traders are advised to exercise caution due to ongoing volatility signals from momentum indicators. Meanwhile, long-term holders may derive confidence from the sustained network engagement and the burgeoning adoption within privacy-centric markets.
