Strategy’s Ambitious Bitcoin Accumulation Plan
According to a recent report by Benzinga, Bernstein analysts have projected that Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, could potentially acquire over 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) by 2033 in a bullish market cycle. This projection is based on two different scenarios depending on macroeconomic conditions and Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Bull vs. Bear Scenario
- Optimistic Scenario: In the optimistic scenario, Strategy aims to expand its current Bitcoin holdings from 506,137 BTC to 1,013,000 BTC. This would account for approximately 5.8% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. The company envisions Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by late 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and hitting $1 million by 2033. To fund this accumulation, Strategy may need to rely on capital markets, potentially increasing its total debt tenfold to $100 billion while raising $84 billion in equity.
- Bear Scenario: On the other hand, in a more constrained scenario, if Bitcoin peaks in 2025 and enters a prolonged downturn, Strategy’s BTC holdings may stabilize around 514,800 BTC, representing just 2.6% of the supply. This could lead to a halt in further acquisitions and potential liquidation of part of its treasury to manage debt and dividends. Debt levels could rise to $51 billion under this scenario.
Outperform Rating Maintained
Despite the varying scenarios, Bernstein has maintained an “outperform” rating on Strategy with a $600 price target, indicating a 75% upside from current levels. The firm’s valuation model includes a 2x EV/sales multiple on the software segment and a 55% premium on Bitcoin reserves.
Strategy’s recent purchase of 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million further solidifies its commitment to Bitcoin, surpassing the 500,000 BTC mark in total holdings. This has positioned the company as the largest publicly traded entity in terms of Bitcoin ownership, attracting interest from both retail and institutional investors.
Bernstein’s analysis underscores the continued institutional interest in Strategy’s leveraged exposure to Bitcoin and highlights how corporate balance sheets are being reshaped around digital assets.
Key Takeaways:
- Strategy could potentially acquire over 1 million Bitcoin by 2033 based on bullish market projections.
- The company’s Bitcoin holdings could reach 1,013,000 BTC in the optimistic scenario and stabilize at 514,800 BTC in the bear scenario.
- Bernstein maintains an “outperform” rating on Strategy with a $600 price target, reflecting a 75% potential upside.
- Strategy’s recent purchase of 6,911 BTC further demonstrates its commitment to Bitcoin and solidifies its position as a major player in the crypto space.
