Bitcoin Bull Market Could Extend Beyond 2026, Says Bitwise CIO
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has raised doubts about the traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that recent policy shifts in Washington could prolong the current bull market well into 2026 and beyond.
Historical Trends and Market Outlook
- Hougan notes that Bitcoin has historically followed a pattern of three strong years followed by a pullback.
- He predicted a market rebound in 2023 and 2024, following this pattern.
- While 2025 is expected to be another strong year, 2026 may show a different trend.
Market Drivers and Catalysts
- Economic factors, rather than halving events, are identified as the primary drivers of the four-year cycle.
- Market upswings typically begin with significant catalysts, attracting new investors and fueling momentum.
- Speculative excess often leads to corrections, as observed in past events like the Mt. Gox collapse and the SEC crackdown on ICOs.
Recent Developments and Future Predictions
- The Grayscale legal victory against the SEC in March 2023 kickstarted the current cycle, known as the “Mainstream Cycle.”
- President Donald Trump’s executive orders related to digital assets introduce new variables that could further boost Bitcoin’s rally.
- Hougan anticipates ETF flows and corporate Bitcoin purchases to drive Bitcoin’s price above $200,000 in 2025.
Institutional Integration and Market Maturation
- Institutional adoption and regulatory support may help prevent severe corrections seen in previous cycles.
- Despite potential speculation-driven pullbacks, the maturation of the crypto market and increased institutional participation could sustain long-term upward momentum.
- The evolving crypto market may signal a departure from traditional market cycles, indicating broader institutional integration and sustained investor interest.