Decentralized Prediction Market Predicts 87% Probability of SEC Approving Litecoin ETF
Crypto bettors on Polymarket are confident in the approval of a Litecoin-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this year, placing an 87% probability on the event.
Optimism Surges for Litecoin ETF Approval
Optimism among market participants surged after the SEC initiated a public comment phase for the proposed Canary Litecoin ETF. According to the agency’s filing on Jan. 29, the public has 21 days to provide feedback, which will influence the regulator’s decision to approve the fund.
After the comment period, the SEC has up to 45 days to issue a decision, with a possible extension to 90 days if necessary. The regulator must approve, deny, or begin a more detailed review process to determine the ETF’s fate.
LTC ETF Approval Progress
Market observers have noted that the SEC’s engagement with the Litecoin ETF signals a potential shift in its approach to crypto-based investment products. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that this is the first altcoin ETF to reach this stage, indicating significant progress in the approval process.
However, the timeline for the SEC’s decision remains uncertain, with questions on whether the regulator will expedite the process or take the full 240-day review period.
Regulatory Environment Shift
Under former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, crypto ETF approvals were often delayed, with decisions pushed to the final deadline. Since Gensler’s departure, Acting Chair Mark Uyeda has taken a more open stance on crypto-related financial products, leading to a wave of ETF applications for assets beyond Bitcoin.
LTC Price Rally and Network Activity
Speculation surrounding the ETF’s approval has triggered a strong rally in Litecoin’s price and increased network activity. Data from CryptoSlate shows LTC rising 14% in the past 24 hours and 15% over the week, reaching $128 at the time of writing.
Blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock pointed out that on-chain metrics indicate rising user activity and network strength for Litecoin. The network currently boasts 8.1 million addresses and an average of 350,000 daily active users, surpassing other networks in engagement.
Furthermore, retail investors hold over half of all LTC in circulation, reflecting a strong grassroots user base.