Bitcoin has recently experienced a significant surge, reaching a peak of $66,000 within 24 hours. This increase marks a departure from weeks of relative stagnation as the broader cryptocurrency market displays signs of recovery.
Historically, October has proven to be a highly favorable month for investors, with past gains soaring as high as 60% and an average return of 22%. Despite this promising trend, market stability over the past few weeks has created a sense of caution among investors.
The recent upward trend has reignited enthusiasm around the concept of “Uptober,” as analysts assess the potential for Bitcoin’s continued ascent.
However, Bitcoin’s price has slightly retracted to $65,632 as of the latest updates from CryptoSlate.
Impact of US Elections on Crypto
A major catalyst for this renewed optimism is the growing belief that leading US presidential candidates—Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump—are generally favorable towards cryptocurrency. This perspective indicates that the crypto market could benefit no matter the election’s outcome.
Recently, Vice President Harris outlined her intentions to create a regulatory framework for digital assets, focusing on protecting retail investors and promoting economic inclusion, especially in underserved communities.
In contrast, Trump has solidified his stance as astrong proponent of cryptocurrencies, frequently making pro-crypto statements during his campaign.
According to the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket, Trump holds a 56.2% likelihood of winning the upcoming election, while Harris has a 43.4% chance.
Despite the uncertainties surrounding the elections, prominent financial institutions like Galaxy Digital believe that Bitcoin will remain resilient irrespective of which candidate is victorious.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has echoed this sentiment, noting that Bitcoin’s potential growth is more significantly influenced by liquidity and transparency than by political regulatory frameworks.
Other Influencing Factors
Additional factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recent upward trajectory include shifting market sentiments and various global economic trends.
A recent note from trading firm QCP Capital highlighted that dissatisfaction with China’s latest economic measures may have led some investors to reallocate their funds from Chinese stocks to Bitcoin.
The recent economic stimulus efforts from China have not met expectations, prompting skepticism regarding the effectiveness of their policies aimed at countering deflation. This backdrop has drawn attention to Bitcoin as a viable alternative.
Furthermore, the announcement of a delay in the repayment timeline to creditors of the Mt. Gox exchange has alleviated anxieties about a potential sudden influx of Bitcoins into the market.
Geopolitical tensions appear to be easing as well, with reports indicating that Israel may refrain from targeting Iran’s oil and nuclear operations. This reduction in geopolitical risks could enhance stability across the global markets.
QCP Capital also pointed out that the absence of significant inflation or labor data at this time may permit the cryptocurrency sector to rise without the burden of elevated risk premiums.